By Global Nexus Education’s Senior Management Team, with editorial and translation support (forthcoming )from AI language tools
Introduction
At Global Nexus Education, we have long been fascinated by the concept of leadership in education. Often, when people hear the word “leadership,” images of boardroom tables and political podiums come to mind. Yet, from our perspective, the ways principals, administrators, teachers, and policymakers guide learning communities can be just as significant—if not more so.
This piece draws on insights from UNESCO’s upcoming 2024/5 Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report and other reputable sources to explore the many layers of educational leadership. Our goal is to shed light on how strong leadership—backed by sound research, professional development, and supportive policies—propels us toward SDG 4: ensuring inclusive, equitable, and quality education for all. Blog Post Title: Higher Education Enrolment Surges in the US – and How Global Trends Compare
In the world of higher education, year-over-year enrolment shifts are always closely watched. Over the past few years, those shifts have been particularly scrutinized given the monumental disruptions caused by COVID-19, changes in demographics, and evolving public perceptions about the value of a college degree. Recently, the United States reported an unexpected rise in both first-year and overall enrolment for the Fall 2024 term. Below, we’ll explore these new numbers, uncover the story behind a major data correction, and compare the American experience to emerging trends in Europe, Canada, and parts of Asia.
A 5.5% Rise in US First-Year Enrolments
In the United States, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) released revised data showing a remarkable 5.5% rise in first-year enrolment (equivalent to around 130,000 students) for Fall 2024. This figure, published in the NSCRC’s report Current Term Enrolment Estimates: Fall 2024, comes on the heels of an earlier, erroneous report which had claimed a 5% decline in first-year students.
Overall, total undergraduate enrolment soared by 5.9% (an increase of 817,000 students), bringing the total to about 16 million students – only 1% fewer than in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. Graduate school enrolment also grew by 3.3% to about 3.2 million students.
Key Factor: The initial miscalculation stemmed from mislabeling a subset of newly enrolled students (particularly 17-year-old high school graduates) as ‘dual-enrolled.’ Once NSCRC analysts had full data—rather than the 50% snapshot they typically rely on for provisional estimates—they discovered the mistake and issued corrections.
Doug Shapiro, NSCRC’s executive director, called the overall increase “encouraging,” noting that enrolment totals have now climbed above pre-pandemic levels for the first time. He was, however, careful to temper optimism with caution, underscoring that enrolment by 18-year-old traditional high school graduates still lags behind 2019 levels by about 1.2%.
The Global View: Europe, Canada, and Asia
While the US enrolment numbers are grabbing headlines, it’s important to contextualize them within global higher education trends. Different regions have been grappling with their own demographic challenges, policy changes, and pandemic aftershocks.
1. Europe
Across Europe, enrolment trends are highly variable, given the continent’s diverse demographic and economic conditions. However, Eurostat (the statistical office of the European Union) reports a steady or slightly growing tertiary education enrolment overall in many EU countries from 2022 into early 2024, despite pockets of decline in places facing population stagnation or decline.
- Germany and France have reported marginal increases in first-year enrolments, partly due to robust support for STEM fields, while also seeing stable interest in health professions.
- Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland) continue to maintain high tertiary participation rates, buoyed by free-tuition policies and strong student support systems.
- In some Eastern European countries, declining birth rates over the past two decades are starting to produce a downward demographic trend similar to the “demographic cliff” concerns in the US. The impact is uneven but noticeable.
Source: Eurostat – Tertiary Education Statistics.
Overall, Europe’s broad social safety nets and government-funded higher education help stabilize enrolment, but as birth rates continue to remain low in many nations, institutions are bracing for future demographic dips.
2. Canada
In Canada, enrolment trends have historically been stable and slightly upward, driven in large part by:
- High immigration rates.
- Attraction of international students, particularly from Asia and Africa.
- Provincial-level higher education investments.
According to Statistics Canada, post-secondary enrolment saw a modest 2–3% increase between 2023 and 2024. Provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, with large urban centers (Toronto, Vancouver), continue to enroll the highest proportion of international students. However, looming concerns about housing affordability and campus capacity have led some universities to reassess long-term enrolment targets.
Source: Statistics Canada – Postsecondary Enrolments.
3. Asia
Given its vast population, Asia is home to the largest number of tertiary-level students in the world. Trends across the region vary immensely:
- China and India alone account for tens of millions of tertiary students each year. Demand remains robust, although recent economic slowdowns and shifts in labor markets have caused some revaluation of popular fields of study.
- Southeast Asian nations (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam) are seeing strong enrolment growth due to a combination of rising incomes, government investments in higher education, and a burgeoning middle class that views a university degree as a key to upward mobility.
- Japan and South Korea have been grappling with declining birth rates for years, prompting institutions to adjust recruiting strategies and internationalize, much like their European counterparts. Nevertheless, their strong emphasis on research and technology programs helps maintain robust enrolment in STEM fields.
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
Delving Deeper into US Numbers
Back in the United States, the newly corrected data showed:
- State-by-State Growth:
- Enrolment rose in 48 out of 50 states.
- Utah led with a 12% increase, followed by North Carolina at 9.7%.
- Previously declining states like Pennsylvania saw a welcome reversal: a 1.8% increase after three years of consistent drops.
- Racial and Socioeconomic Gains:
- Growth was largely consistent across racial, income, and gender lines.
- Historically underrepresented or lower-income groups experienced some of the highest growth rates, reflecting intensified recruitment and support efforts.
- Institutions serving large numbers of Pell Grant recipients (the federal grant for low-income students) posted notable gains, signifying renewed efforts to make higher education financially accessible.
- Fields of Study:
- Health professions saw an 8.3% rise, reversing a minor dip in 2023.
- Engineering grew by 5.5%, continuing a global trend where technical and professional fields lead enrolment expansions.
- Liberal arts and English continued to decline, echoing broader shifts in student demand and perceptions of immediate career applicability.
Lessons and Looking Ahead
1. Methodology Matters
The NSCRC’s initial error underscores the importance of transparent, carefully calibrated data-gathering methods. In a world where policy decisions, funding allocations, and student recruitment strategies can pivot on seemingly small numerical changes, accurate data is vital.
2. The Global “Demographic Cliff”
Even as the US celebrates climbing enrolment numbers, long-term forecasts point to a steep drop in the college-aged population over the next 10–15 years due to falling birth rates after the 2008 financial crisis. Many European nations, Japan, and South Korea are already grappling with their own demographic challenges. Colleges and universities globally are diversifying international recruiting, exploring online education, and investing in adult and continuing education programs to adapt.
3. Shifting Student Preferences
Fields like health, public administration, and STEM are increasingly favored, driven by:
- A strong job market for healthcare and tech-related roles.
- Greater awareness of the economic returns on degrees with clear career pathways.
By contrast, the persistent decline in liberal arts enrolments in North America reflects a global debate on the “value” of humanities education. However, many experts caution that a swing too far from the humanities risks an underdeveloped skill set in critical thinking, ethics, and creativity—attributes that remain highly sought after by many employers.
Conclusion
The corrected figures from the NSCRC reveal a more optimistic picture of US higher education than initially painted. American colleges and universities are, in fact, seeing enrolment climbs that bring total numbers close to pre-pandemic levels. Yet even as the US basks in some renewed optimism, the broader global outlook remains mixed: demographic pressures, shifting student interests, and the aftereffects of the pandemic continue to mold enrolment patterns in Europe, Canada, and Asia.
Going forward, institutional resilience will likely hinge on innovative recruiting strategies, financial accessibility, and the ability to adapt curriculum to changing job market demands. While no one can fully predict how these forces will shape higher education, one thing is clear: reliable data—and a willingness to act on it—will be key to navigating the complexities of a fast-evolving global academic landscape.
References and Further Reading
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2025). Current Term Enrolment Estimates: Fall 2024.
- Shapiro, D. (2025, January 13). NSCRC Press Release on Methodological Error. National Student Clearinghouse.
- Eurostat. (2024). Tertiary Education Statistics. Link
- Statistics Canada. (2024). Postsecondary enrolments, 2023/2024. Link
- UNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2024). Global Tertiary Enrolment Data. Link
- Nietzel, M.T. (2024, January). Insights on the US demographic cliff. Forbes.
Author’s note: The data and trends described here are accurate as of January 2025 but are subject to updates as more institutions release final enrolment figures.
1. Understanding Leadership in the Education Context
From business to the classroom
While leadership frameworks in business and politics often dominate popular discussion (Kouzes & Posner, 2017), we’ve noticed these principles readily adapt to education. For instance, “modeling the way” and “enabling others to act” aren’t limited to CEOs; they very much apply to how a school principal rallies staff to improve student outcomes.
A process of social influence
We also appreciate Kruse’s (2013) take, describing leadership as “a process of social influence aimed at achieving a shared goal.” It reminds us that leadership need not rest solely with those who have formal authority—it can be distributed among teachers, community members, and even students. In education, this collective influence drives a more inclusive environment, where all voices contribute to meaningful reforms.
2. Why Leadership Matters for SDG 4
Leadership in the Incheon Declaration and Education 2030
The Incheon Declaration (2015) assigns UNESCO a leadership role in pursuing SDG 4, and its companion, the Education 2030 Framework for Action, emphasizes leadership for teacher quality (Target 4.c) and vocational education (Target 4.4). At the policy level, this translates into “political leadership,” aligning local, regional, and national initiatives to elevate learning across the board.
Leadership as part of education quality
We find it telling that UNESCO’s conceptual framework spotlights leadership alongside teacher effectiveness and resources. To echo Louis et al. (2010): “We have not found a single case of a school improving its student achievement record in the absence of talented leadership.” Effective leaders bolster synergy across all school factors—curriculum, community engagement, staff well-being—creating conditions where sustainable progress is possible.
Recent Publications Worth Exploring
- OECD (2022), Beyond Academic Learning: First Results from the Survey of Social and Emotional Skills — highlights how leadership positively impacts socio-emotional skills.
- UNESCO (2023), Technology in Education: A Tool on Whose Terms? — underscores the importance of leadership in ensuring equitable tech integration.
3. School-Level Leadership: Transformational, Instructional, and Distributed
- Transformational Leadership
- Centers on reshaping school culture through vision and inspiration.
- A Brookings Institution (2023) study found principals who articulate a powerful mission and invest in teacher motivation often witness gains in student engagement.
- Instructional Leadership
- Focuses on pedagogy, curriculum, and assessments rather than administrative tasks.
- The Education Development Trust (2023) points out that strong instructional leadership directly correlates with improved literacy outcomes, particularly in low-resource settings.
- Distributed Leadership
- Emphasizes collaborative structures, where teachers, heads of departments, and community stakeholders share decision-making.
- Research by the International School Leadership Development Network (ISLDN, 2022) associates distributed leadership with greater job satisfaction and lower attrition among teachers—key for post-pandemic recovery efforts.
4. Beyond the School: Leadership Across the Education Ecosystem
Policy and system leadership
Leadership isn’t confined to individual schools. Ministers, government officials, and local authorities play a pivotal role in shaping policies, accountability systems, and professional development. The World Bank (2023) policy brief, Leaders in Learning: Strengthening School Leadership for Education Recovery, notes that clear system-level leadership can address pandemic learning losses more effectively.
Community partnerships
Parent-teacher associations, civil society groups, and private-sector organizations can be invaluable partners. Save the Children (2022) demonstrates how community-driven solutions can bolster education in crisis-affected areas, keeping students safe and connected to learning. To us, this collaborative approach reflects another dimension of leadership—inviting shared ownership across all stakeholders.
5. Additional Must-Reads and Key Resources
- OECD – Education at a Glance 2023
- Comparative data on education systems worldwide.
- [Link]
- World Bank – Leaders in Learning: Strengthening School Leadership for Education Recovery (2023)
- Offers insights for post-pandemic leadership strategies.
- [Link]
- Brookings Institution – Reimagining the Role of Principals in Education Reform (2023)
- Case studies on successful principals focusing on equity and community engagement.
- [Link]
- UNESCO’s Global Education Monitoring Report
- The 2024/5 edition focuses on leadership, but prior reports touch on governance, teacher policy, and more.
- [Link]
- Leithwood et al. (2020)
- “Seven Strong Claims about Successful School Leadership” is a seminal read for newcomers and veterans alike.
- ICEF Monitor (2023)
- Primarily covers international education trends but features useful leadership insights for institutional growth.
- [Link]
6. Moving Forward: Leadership as a Transformative Tool
Reflecting on these studies, we see near-universal agreement that strong leadership is indispensable for educational transformation. However, putting this into practice means equipping leaders—be they principals, district supervisors, or community champions—with the tools they need to focus on what truly matters: improving learning experiences and outcomes.
New research from the Education Development Trust (2023) and OECD underscores how continuous professional development supports retention and improves student success. When training programs cultivate peer learning communities and tailor methods to local realities, the ripple effects on school culture can be profound and enduring.
As we await the formal release of the 2024/5 GEM Report on leadership in education, existing evidence already paints a clear picture: where leaders demonstrate openness, collaboration, and a steadfast commitment to learners, entire education systems stand to benefit.
Conclusion
From a single classroom to entire school districts, leadership—rooted in collaboration, mentorship, and a shared vision—drives transformative change. The upcoming GEM Report will undoubtedly shed fresh light on how we can bolster leadership capacity to fulfill SDG 4. Yet it’s also evident that much can be done, even now, to empower individuals and communities to own their roles as educational leaders.
Whether you’re a policymaker, a teacher, a parent, or a curious observer, remember that educational leadership is bigger than any one person. It thrives on partnerships, clear goals, and evidence-based practices. We hope these reflections and resources help spark conversations about how to nurture and support the kind of leadership we all need—for the students of today and the world of tomorrow.
References & Further Reading
- Brookings Institution (2023). Reimagining the Role of Principals in Education Reform.
- Education Development Trust (2023). Leadership in the Time of Disruption: Reimagining Principals in a Post-Pandemic World.
- Kouzes, J.M., & Posner, B.Z. (2017). The Leadership Challenge.
- Kruse, K. (2013). What is Leadership? Forbes.
- Leithwood, K., et al. (2020). Seven Strong Claims about Successful School Leadership.
- Louis, K. S., Leithwood, K., Wahlstrom, K., & Anderson, S. (2010). Investigating the Links to Improved Student Learning. The Wallace Foundation.
- OECD (2022, 2023). Education at a Glance; Beyond Academic Learning.
- UNESCO (2023). Technology in Education: A Tool on Whose Terms? Global Education Monitoring Report.
- World Bank (2023). Leaders in Learning: Strengthening School Leadership for Education Recovery.
Author’s Note: This piece was prepared by Global Nexus Education’s Senior Management Team, with editorial assistance translation from from AI language tools, drawing on the above research and resources to provide a comprehensive look at leadership in education.