Blog by Tony Wu & Rob McLay
In the world of higher education, year-over-year enrolment shifts are always closely watched. Over the past few years, those shifts have been particularly scrutinized given the monumental disruptions caused by COVID-19, changes in demographics, and evolving public perceptions about the value of a college degree. Recently, the United States reported an unexpected rise in both first-year and overall enrolment for the Fall 2024 term. Below, we’ll explore these new numbers, uncover the story behind a major data correction, and compare the American experience to emerging trends in Europe, Canada, and parts of Asia.
A 5.5% Rise in US First-Year Enrolments
In the United States, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) released revised data showing a remarkable 5.5% rise in first-year enrolment (equivalent to around 130,000 students) for Fall 2024. This figure, published in the NSCRC’s report Current Term Enrolment Estimates: Fall 2024, comes on the heels of an earlier, erroneous report which had claimed a 5% decline in first-year students.
Overall, total undergraduate enrolment soared by 5.9% (an increase of 817,000 students), bringing the total to about 16 million students – only 1% fewer than in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. Graduate school enrolment also grew by 3.3% to about 3.2 million students.
Key Factor: The initial miscalculation stemmed from mislabeling a subset of newly enrolled students (particularly 17-year-old high school graduates) as ‘dual-enrolled.’ Once NSCRC analysts had full data—rather than the 50% snapshot they typically rely on for provisional estimates—they discovered the mistake and issued corrections.
Doug Shapiro, NSCRC’s executive director, called the overall increase “encouraging,” noting that enrolment totals have now climbed above pre-pandemic levels for the first time. He was, however, careful to temper optimism with caution, underscoring that enrolment by 18-year-old traditional high school graduates still lags behind 2019 levels by about 1.2%.
The Global View: Europe, Canada, and Asia
While the US enrolment numbers are grabbing headlines, it’s important to contextualize them within global higher education trends. Different regions have been grappling with their own demographic challenges, policy changes, and pandemic aftershocks.
1. Europe
Across Europe, enrolment trends are highly variable, given the continent’s diverse demographic and economic conditions. However, Eurostat (the statistical office of the European Union) reports a steady or slightly growing tertiary education enrolment overall in many EU countries from 2022 into early 2024, despite pockets of decline in places facing population stagnation or decline.
- Germany and France have reported marginal increases in first-year enrolments, partly due to robust support for STEM fields, while also seeing stable interest in health professions.
- Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland) continue to maintain high tertiary participation rates, buoyed by free-tuition policies and strong student support systems.
- In some Eastern European countries, declining birth rates over the past two decades are starting to produce a downward demographic trend similar to the “demographic cliff” concerns in the US. The impact is uneven but noticeable.
Source: Eurostat – Tertiary Education Statistics.
Overall, Europe’s broad social safety nets and government-funded higher education help stabilize enrolment, but as birth rates continue to remain low in many nations, institutions are bracing for future demographic dips.
2. Canada
In Canada, enrolment trends have historically been stable and slightly upward, driven in large part by:
- High immigration rates.
- Attraction of international students, particularly from Asia and Africa.
- Provincial-level higher education investments.
According to Statistics Canada, post-secondary enrolment saw a modest 2–3% increase between 2023 and 2024. Provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, with large urban centers (Toronto, Vancouver), continue to enroll the highest proportion of international students. However, looming concerns about housing affordability and campus capacity have led some universities to reassess long-term enrolment targets.
Source: Statistics Canada – Postsecondary Enrolments.
3. Asia
Given its vast population, Asia is home to the largest number of tertiary-level students in the world. Trends across the region vary immensely:
- China and India alone account for tens of millions of tertiary students each year. Demand remains robust, although recent economic slowdowns and shifts in labor markets have caused some revaluation of popular fields of study.
- Southeast Asian nations (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam) are seeing strong enrolment growth due to a combination of rising incomes, government investments in higher education, and a burgeoning middle class that views a university degree as a key to upward mobility.
- Japan and South Korea have been grappling with declining birth rates for years, prompting institutions to adjust recruiting strategies and internationalize, much like their European counterparts. Nevertheless, their strong emphasis on research and technology programs helps maintain robust enrolment in STEM fields.
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
Delving Deeper into US Numbers
Back in the United States, the newly corrected data showed:
- State-by-State Growth:
- Enrolment rose in 48 out of 50 states.
- Utah led with a 12% increase, followed by North Carolina at 9.7%.
- Previously declining states like Pennsylvania saw a welcome reversal: a 1.8% increase after three years of consistent drops.
- Racial and Socioeconomic Gains:
- Growth was largely consistent across racial, income, and gender lines.
- Historically underrepresented or lower-income groups experienced some of the highest growth rates, reflecting intensified recruitment and support efforts.
- Institutions serving large numbers of Pell Grant recipients (the federal grant for low-income students) posted notable gains, signifying renewed efforts to make higher education financially accessible.
- Fields of Study:
- Health professions saw an 8.3% rise, reversing a minor dip in 2023.
- Engineering grew by 5.5%, continuing a global trend where technical and professional fields lead enrolment expansions.
- Liberal arts and English continued to decline, echoing broader shifts in student demand and perceptions of immediate career applicability.
Lessons and Looking Ahead
1. Methodology Matters
The NSCRC’s initial error underscores the importance of transparent, carefully calibrated data-gathering methods. In a world where policy decisions, funding allocations, and student recruitment strategies can pivot on seemingly small numerical changes, accurate data is vital.
2. The Global “Demographic Cliff”
Even as the US celebrates climbing enrolment numbers, long-term forecasts point to a steep drop in the college-aged population over the next 10–15 years due to falling birth rates after the 2008 financial crisis. Many European nations, Japan, and South Korea are already grappling with their own demographic challenges. Colleges and universities globally are diversifying international recruiting, exploring online education, and investing in adult and continuing education programs to adapt.
3. Shifting Student Preferences
Fields like health, public administration, and STEM are increasingly favored, driven by:
- A strong job market for healthcare and tech-related roles.
- Greater awareness of the economic returns on degrees with clear career pathways.
By contrast, the persistent decline in liberal arts enrolments in North America reflects a global debate on the “value” of humanities education. However, many experts caution that a swing too far from the humanities risks an underdeveloped skill set in critical thinking, ethics, and creativity—attributes that remain highly sought after by many employers.
Conclusion
The corrected figures from the NSCRC reveal a more optimistic picture of US higher education than initially painted. American colleges and universities are, in fact, seeing enrolment climbs that bring total numbers close to pre-pandemic levels. Yet even as the US basks in some renewed optimism, the broader global outlook remains mixed: demographic pressures, shifting student interests, and the aftereffects of the pandemic continue to mold enrolment patterns in Europe, Canada, and Asia.
Going forward, institutional resilience will likely hinge on innovative recruiting strategies, financial accessibility, and the ability to adapt curriculum to changing job market demands. While no one can fully predict how these forces will shape higher education, one thing is clear: reliable data—and a willingness to act on it—will be key to navigating the complexities of a fast-evolving global academic landscape.
References and Further Reading
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. (2025). Current Term Enrolment Estimates: Fall 2024.
- Shapiro, D. (2025, January 13). NSCRC Press Release on Methodological Error. National Student Clearinghouse.
- Eurostat. (2024). Tertiary Education Statistics. Link
- Statistics Canada. (2024). Postsecondary enrolments, 2023/2024. Link
- UNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2024). Global Tertiary Enrolment Data. Link
- Nietzel, M.T. (2024, January). Insights on the US demographic cliff. Forbes.
Author’s note: The data and trends described here are accurate as of January 2025 but are subject to updates as more institutions release final enrolment figures.