By: Liang Cheng, Georgia Alexander and Rob McLay
Introduction
Classrooms from Toronto to Auckland are running on empty: UNESCO counts a 44 million teacher shortfall by 2030 and burnout is rising even in wealthy systems. Quick fixes fall short; what moves the needle is pay that competes, smaller classes and time to plan, safer schools, and strong preparation. With training and clear guardrails, AI becomes an extra set of hands, not a replacement.
A global squeeze you can feel.
Walk into a school in Toronto, Auckland, Houston, or London and you hear it: we can’t hire, we can’t keep, and the work keeps piling up. UNESCO’s new global report puts a number on it—about 44 million additional teachers needed by 2030, with the crunch now visible in richer systems too. That’s not a blip; it’s a capacity problem with real stakes for learning and growth.
Complementary data: UNESCO’s 2025 Global Report on Teachers estimates 44 million additional primary and secondary teachers are needed worldwide by 2030, including roughly 15 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, and warns of declining attractiveness of the profession even in high-income countries. (UNESCO)
Shortages are structural, not seasonal.
Across the OECD, principals saying learning is hindered by a lack of teachers jumped from 26% in 2018 to 47% in 2022, with big spikes in Australia, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Portugal. In the U.S., districts are still plugging holes: Houston opened this year with about one in four teachers uncertified. In Canada, a national union survey found many educators considering the exit. And New Zealand officials warned schools could be short about 1,250 teachers this year after earlier surplus forecasts. Different systems, same pattern.
Complementary data: OECD’s 2025 analysis confirms the rise to 47% of students in schools where principals report instruction hindered by a lack of staff (up from 26% in 2018), with increases exceeding 30 points in several countries. (OECD)
In England, vacancies reached a record >6 per 1,000 posts unfilled in 2023/24, and watchdogs caution that delivering the pledge to hire 6,500 teachers will be difficult without a coherent workforce plan; further education alone may need 8,400–12,400 more teachers by 2028–29. (The Guardian)
In Australia, the National Teacher Workforce Action Plan is in force as new research shows nine in ten teachers reporting severe stress and nearly 70% calling workload unmanageable. (Department of Education)
In Canada, the Canadian Teachers’ Federation’s 2025 Parachute survey flags an ongoing retention crisis, even as student commitment keeps many in the job. (CTF-FCE)
In New Zealand, the Ministry of Education projects a shortfall of 1,250 teachers in 2025 after revising earlier forecasts. (RNZ)
Why teachers walk: pay, workload, respect.
Pay doesn’t tell the whole story—but it sets the floor. In 2024 the U.S. “teacher pay penalty” hit 26.9%, the widest gap on record versus similarly educated peers. Layer on classroom complexity and time pressure. England’s labour-market data ties weak recruitment to high workload; Australian studies show stress and anxiety well above national norms. In Canada, safety and class size loom large. When the job stops feeling doable—fair pay, protected prep time, specialist support—people vote with their feet.
Complementary data: The EPI/CEPR 2025 update finds the U.S. teacher weekly wage gap rose to 26.9% in 2024 (teachers earn about 73 cents on the dollar vs. similar graduates). (Economic Policy Institute). UK unions and parliamentary scrutiny highlight workload and behaviour as central to attrition, urging full implementation of workload-reduction measures. (The Times)
What helps (and what hurts).
Systems are moving—UK hiring pledges, New Zealand staffing shifts and overseas recruitment, Australia’s national planning—yet none of it lands without day-to-day relief. Evidence keeps circling back to a few levers: competitive pay, time (smaller classes, more non-teaching time), and strong preparation via paid residencies and “grow-your-own” pathways that raise retention. What consistently backfires is papering over gaps with mass emergency certification, which early studies link to weaker outcomes and faster churn.Complementary data: OECD policy work underscores pairing pay and time protections with robust preparation routes (residencies, local pipelines) to raise retention. (OECD)
In the U.S., new evidence from Central Texas associates uncertified teachers with 3–4 months of learning losses and higher turnover, reinforcing the risks of overreliance on emergency credentials. (E3 Alliance). Houston ISD’s start to 2025–26 with 1 in 4 teachers uncertified illustrates the tradeoffs districts face under pressure. (Houston Chronicle)
Isn’t AI going to replace teachers’ jobs?
A recent RAND snapshot shows AI use rising in U.S. classrooms, but guidance and training lag, and teachers still make the call. The UK’s education ministry says it plainly: AI can help with planning, feedback, and paperwork, but the teacher is responsible for learning.
Complementary data: RAND finds rapid year-over-year growth in AI use among students and teachers, while policies and PD lag behind practice. (RAND Corporation)
The UK Department for Education’s 2025 guidance packages AI as a workload-reduction tool with the teacher retaining responsibility and schools setting guardrails. (Education Hub)
There is a time dividend. Gallup finds regular users saving about six hours a week when schools set clear guardrails. The real risk isn’t robots running the room; it’s hollowing out the role by swapping time, trust, and professional judgment for shiny tools. UNESCO’s Santiago Consensus, and the blunt reminder that “teachers cannot be coded,” draws the line: use AI to strengthen the profession, not replace it.
Complementary data: Three in ten teachers using AI weekly report saving ~5.9 hours per week—roughly six weeks a year. (Gallup.com)
UNESCO’s World Summit on Teachers culminated in the Santiago Consensus, emphasizing investment in teachers and stating plainly that teachers “cannot be coded.” (Education International)
Why this matters.
Classrooms don’t exist in a bubble. When we can’t keep teachers, students, clinics, and businesses feel it. The answer is not mysterious: better pay and support, more time, stronger preparation, and AI that helps rather than replaces. Whether we do it at full strength is the open question.
Complementary data: OECD links persistent shortages to lost instructional time and widening inequities if unaddressed—especially where shortages are most acute. (OECD)
Further Reading
- UNESCO World Summit on Teachers: Santiago Consensus (what countries pledged). (Education International)
- OECD: How severe are teacher shortages across countries? (Education at a Glance 2025). (OECD)
- Three in 10 Teachers Use AI Weekly, Saving Six Weeks a Year (Gallup on the AI time dividend for teachers). (Gallup.com)
- National Teacher Workforce Action Plan (Australia). (Department of Education)
- NFER/NAO on England’s record vacancies and feasibility of hiring pledges. (NFER)
References
Department for Education (UK). (2025, June 10). AI in schools and colleges: What you need to know. https://educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2025/06/artificial-intelligence-in-schools-everything-you-need-to-know/?utm_source=chatgpt.com (Education Hub)
Doss, C. J., Bozick, R., Schwartz, H. L., Chu, L., Rainey, L. R., Woo, A., Reich, J., & Dukes, J. (2025). AI use in schools is quickly increasing but guidance lags behind. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4180-1.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com (RAND Corporation)
Economic Policy Institute & CEPR. (2025, Sept. 24). The teacher pay penalty hit a record high in 2024. https://www.epi.org/press/the-teacher-pay-penalty-hit-a-record-high-in-2024-teachers-made-26-9-less-than-similarly-educated-professionals/?utm_source=chatgpt.com (Economic Policy Institute)
Gallup. (2025, June 24). Three in 10 teachers use AI weekly, saving six weeks a year. https://news.gallup.com/poll/691967/three-teachers-weekly-saving-six-weeks-year.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com (Gallup.com)
Houston Chronicle. (2025, Oct.). Houston ISD starts 2025–26 school year with 1 in 4 teachers uncertified. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/education/hisd/article/uncertified-teachers-2025-26-20825883.php?utm_source=chatgpt.com (Houston Chronicle)
OECD. (2025, Sept.). Education at a Glance 2025 — How severe are teacher shortages across countries? https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/education-at-a-glance-2025_1c0d9c79-en/full-report/how-severe-are-teacher-shortages-across-countries_781f4a97.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com (OECD)
RNZ. (2025, Feb. 21). Schools could be short 1,250 teachers this year, Ministry of Education warns. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/542546/schools-could-be-short-1250-teachers-this-year-ministry-of-education-warns?utm_source=chatgpt.com (RNZ)
UNESCO. (2025, Apr. 8/May 15). Global report on teachers: What you need to know / Addressing teacher shortages and transforming the profession. https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/global-report-teachers-what-you-need-know; https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/global-report-teachers-addressing-teacher-shortages-and-transforming-profession (UNESCO)
UNESCO. (2025, Sept. 16). Teachers cannot be coded. https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/teachers-cannot-be-coded (UNESCO)
E3 Alliance. (2025, Feb. 10). Effects of certified vs. uncertified teachers on Central Texas student outcomes (policy brief). https://e3alliance.org/app/uploads/2025/03/20250210P_Teachers-v2.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com (E3 Alliance)
National Audit Office (UK). (2025, Apr. 30). Teacher workforce: secondary and further education (report/summary). https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/governments-6500-teacher-pledge-faces-uncertainties-as-student-numbers-surge/; https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/teacher-workforce-secondary-and-further-education-summary.pdf (National Audit Office (NAO))
NFER. (2025, Mar. 13). Teacher labour market in England – Annual report 2025. https://www.nfer.ac.uk/publications/teacher-labour-market-in-england-annual-report-2025/ (NFER)
Canadian Teachers’ Federation. (2025, Jul. 17). One foot out the door: Students remain key reason why most teachers choose to stay. https://www.ctf-fce.ca/one-foot-out-the-door-students-remain-key-reason-why-most-teachers-choose-to-stay/ (CTF-FCE)
Department of Education, Government of Australia. (2025, Mar. 21). National Teacher Workforce Action Plan. https://www.education.gov.au/national-teacher-workforce-action-plan (Department of Education)